As predicted in Part II of the series “Can Social Media be Politically Predictive?” Dan Patrick’s high volume of mentions on Twitter had a nearly perfect correlation to his success in winning the majority of votes in the Republican runoff in Texas.

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Between the time frame of the initial primary vote and the runoff election, Patrick received 23,907 mentions with Dewhurst receiving only 13,484 on Twitter.

We thought it would be interesting to see whether the mentions were coming directly from the candidates or whether they came organically from supporters.

Patrick mentioned himself 117 times, mostly through retweeting his supporters while Dewhurst only mentioned himself twice.

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The pattern of votes and mentions remained consistent among several other races, including the Texas attorney general race between Ken Paxton and Dan Branch and the race between Sid Miller and Tommy Merritt for Texas agriculture commissioner.

We are looking forward to see whether this pattern will continue when candidates are facing opponents outside their own party in November’s election.


-IO Team